Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
00 0x00a7…bf3d other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 606d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$8 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$48
sports 29% +$60
crypto 3% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +36.7% +23.7% 43% 39% -5.0%
≤30d 23 +36.7% +23.7% 43% 39% -5.0%
≤90d 23 +36.7% +23.7% 43% 39% -5.0%
all 26 +29.8% +17.4% 42% 38% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.4% 38% -6.8%
10% +6.2% 38% -15.7%
15% -4.1% 35% -23.9%
20% -13.5% 31% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +88% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)26 / 38
History coverage606d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$20 +325%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by Sunday? Dec 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? Oct 22 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $23 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.72 · official $150.72 (match) · 55 history records