Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x009f…e710 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$17
politics 31% −$15
sports 11% +$7
crypto 5% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 124 -1.4% -10.7% 11% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 2% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage127d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $360 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $322 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $298 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,176 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $288 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $260 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $292 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $235 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $295 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $275 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $310 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? May 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $294 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $318 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $328 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $261 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $299 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $323 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $318 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $257 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $335 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 13 $275 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $330 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $250 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $297 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $270 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 11 $304 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $232 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $268 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $579 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 12h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 12h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 16h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $37 16h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $37 20h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $37 29h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $37 2d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 21d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 22d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $302 25d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $302 25d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $298 26d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $298 28d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $235 29d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $235 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $302 30d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $302 31d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $288 31d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $288 32d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $260 32d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $260 32d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $292 32d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $292 32d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $235 33d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $235 34d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 34d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 34d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $299 35d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $299 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 353 history records