Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
00 0x009b…cd4c crypto 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$116 (+7%) realized +$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%47W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$274
14 days+$215
30 days+$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$162
other 6% −$26
sports 4% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +16.4% +5.3% 54% 54% +9.7%
≤30d 74 +11.1% +0.6% 51% 51% +4.0%
≤90d 105 -2.8% -12.1% 45% 44% -4.6%
all 105 -2.8% -12.1% 45% 44% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 44% -4.6%
10% -20.5% 43% -13.7%
15% -28.2% 42% -22.1%
20% -35.2% 42% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$13 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses47 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage68d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$49 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$50 +100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $80 +$75 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$20 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$20 +100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 +$59 +288%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $41 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$40 +100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$15 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$19 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$47 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$20 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$31 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$12 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 12h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 22h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 22h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $155 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $44 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 267 history records