Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x009a…b063 crypto 282 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-11%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%149W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$219
14 days−$116
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$46
weather 13% −$65
tech 2% −$10
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -42.8% -48.2% 41% 41% -41.4%
≤30d 282 -13.8% -22.0% 53% 51% -20.5%
≤90d 282 -13.8% -22.0% 53% 51% -20.5%
all 282 -13.8% -22.0% 53% 51% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 51% -20.5%
10% -29.4% 35% -28.1%
15% -36.3% 21% -35.1%
20% -42.5% 17% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses149 / 133
Open positions0
Markets (closed)282 / 282
History coverage24d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 282 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -75%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -64%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -88%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -61%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -41%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -89%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -80%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 16m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1039 history records