Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x009a…2b8e other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$828 (-2%) realized −$752 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%23W / 73L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$5,028
30 days−$3,666
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$1,025
crypto 14% −$26
culture 12% −$4
tech 9% −$2,356
politics 6% −$95
world 5% −$294
economics 3% −$2
sports 1% −$123
finance 0% +$961
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 36 -48.0% -52.9% 8% 6% -66.8%
≤90d 47 -30.3% -36.9% 19% 15% -34.9%
all 96 -4.2% -13.3% 24% 22% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 22% -11.7%
10% -21.6% 20% -20.2%
15% -29.2% 18% -27.9%
20% -36.1% 16% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$561) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +20% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$74 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$1,176
Realized−$752
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses23 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)96 / 106
History coverage240d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $430 $463 +$33 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $450 $360 −$90 (-20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $50 $87 +$37 (+74%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $53 $51 −$2 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 40¢ 15¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-62%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $29 $3 −$26 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 14 $56 −$10 -19%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-20? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Atalanta vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 27? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jun 13 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 13 $312 −$312 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jun 13 $411 +$4 +1%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Jun 13 $154 −$154 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jun 13 $174 −$174 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $450 −$450 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 13 $156 −$156 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $741 −$741 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 13 $401 −$401 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? Jun 13 $163 −$163 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 13 $269 −$269 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $205 +$403 +196%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $80 +$961 +1201%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $20 −$1 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $300 −$27 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 18 $1,501 −$3 -0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? May 18 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 28 $30 +$24 +79%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 14 $50 +$64 +129%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $550 +$404 +73%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 31 $67 +$4 +6%
No airdrop in 2025? Mar 31 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 30 $150 +$100 +67%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 26 $500 +$300 +60%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 24 $499 +$380 +76%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 12 $400 −$83 -21%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Mar 12 $260 +$36 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $10 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $15 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $25 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $50 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $20 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $25 9d
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? SELL Yes 6¢ $33 9d
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? SELL Yes 6¢ $13 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 19¢ $187 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 48¢ $196 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 11¢ $68 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 17¢ $44 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 30¢ $185 12d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 17d
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,175.84 · official $1,184.93 (match) · 381 history records