Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0097…f873 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-7%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$2
sports 23% +$1
crypto 10% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-75.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -72.9% -75.5% 25% 0% -38.7%
≤30d 4 -72.9% -75.5% 25% 0% -38.7%
≤90d 4 -72.9% -75.5% 25% 0% -38.7%
all 4 -72.9% -75.5% 25% 0% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.5% 0% -38.7%
10% -77.9% 0% -44.6%
15% -80.0% 0% -50.0%
20% -82.0% 0% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 56¢ $11 21h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.56 · official $25.85 · 9 history records