Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x0096…31ec politics 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$8
politics 40% −$9
sports 6% −$26
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 122 -1.4% -10.8% 6% 2% -9.8%
all 139 -3.2% -12.5% 9% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 4% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 4% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 127
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage118d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $283 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $149 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $137 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $105 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $134 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $127 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $142 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $107 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $138 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $140 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $273 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $227 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $136 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $228 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $268 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $263 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $145 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $257 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $121 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $185 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $366 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $252 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $102 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 01 $228 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $394 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $132 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 23h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 24h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 39h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 45h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 45h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 47h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $24 8d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 8d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 8d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 10d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 11d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 15d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $21 15d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 17d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 22d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 23d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 23d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 23d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $105 23d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $105 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 369 history records