Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0096…b5e1 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$70 (-11%) realized −$10 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$23
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$11
world 26% −$53
crypto 16% −$30
sports 5% +$12
culture 2% +$13
politics 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +24.2% +12.4% 44% 33% -21.1%
≤30d 12 +24.1% +12.3% 42% 33% -16.8%
≤90d 12 +24.1% +12.3% 42% 33% -16.8%
all 24 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 29% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 29% -13.5%
10% -19.4% 25% -21.8%
15% -27.2% 25% -29.4%
20% -34.3% 25% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 30
History coverage148d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 30¢ $160 $112 −$48 (-30%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $58 $47 −$11 (-20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 −$15 -47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $11 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 −$2 -12%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 22 $9 −$4 -46%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $15 +$13 +89%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 1) Mar 01 $18 −$14 -77%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 27 $22 −$5 -20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 26 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 26 $23 +$23 +99%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January? Jan 26 $11 −$3 -29%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 24 $1 $0 -7%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jan 24 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $20 24h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $51 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 56¢ $15 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $35 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $3 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $11 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $11 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 7d
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 44¢ $163 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 9d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 9d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.25 · official $238.25 (match) · 71 history records