Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0094…dee2 crypto 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$108 (-3%) realized −$109 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate80%51W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$94
other 27% −$119
politics 11% +$13
world 9% +$46
weather 8% +$3
finance 5% +$1
sports 2% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 14 +4.5% -5.4% 100% 7% -5.0%
all 64 -5.4% -14.4% 80% 8% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 8% -12.4%
10% -22.6% 5% -20.8%
15% -30.0% 5% -28.5%
20% -36.9% 3% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$26 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses51 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage585d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $101 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $191 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on May 19? May 21 $188 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 06 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 06 $47 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 06 $50 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 06 $57 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 06 $60 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 17 $96 +$41 +43%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 06 $47 $0 +1%
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? Apr 06 $142 +$5 +3%
Will BNB dip to $300 in February? Mar 07 $134 +$6 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Feb 03 $120 +$2 +2%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jan 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Aster all time high by December 31? Dec 26 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Trump apologize for his 'punishable by DEATH' post by November 30 Dec 10 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 22 $34 −$2 -7%
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? Nov 22 $66 −$64 -98%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Nov 09 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 24? Oct 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 24 $29 +$4 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 17? Oct 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Yieldbasis FDV above $500M one day after launch? Oct 19 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 14 $59 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by September 30? Oct 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 1–7? Sep 13 $56 +$44 +79%
Megaquake before August? Sep 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 06 $81 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30? Jul 11 $25 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June? Jul 11 $30 $0 +1%
Phillies vs. Braves Jul 11 $34 +$41 +122%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? Jun 06 $23 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Jun 06 $49 +$1 +1%
ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 9? May 17 $60 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 03 $40 $0 +0%
US announces Afghanistan military base in April? May 03 $40 $0 +1%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? Apr 28 $21 +$5 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? Apr 27 $40 $0 +0%
China bans US films in April? Apr 10 $42 +$4 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $31 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $102 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $93 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $101 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $78 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $191 29d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on May 19? BUY No 99¢ $188 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $100 51d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $57 69d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $30 69d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 98¢ $40 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $60 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $50 69d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL No 73¢ $137 69d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $47 80d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $47 91d
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? SELL No 100¢ $47 91d
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? BUY No 97¢ $142 111d
Will BNB dip to $300 in February? BUY No 96¢ $12 142d
Will BNB dip to $300 in February? BUY No 96¢ $123 142d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? BUY No 98¢ $120 150d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi BUY No 31¢ $35 182d
Aster all time high by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $35 182d
Aster all time high by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $34 198d
Will Trump apologize for his 'punishable by DEATH' post by November 30 BUY No 98¢ $33 215d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? SELL No 92¢ $31 215d
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? SELL Yes $2 215d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $34 228d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 241d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL Yes 93¢ $33 244d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.70 · official $294.70 (match) · 408 history records