Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
00 0x0094…1493 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%22W / 36L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$4
politics 32% +$1
other 24% +$1
finance 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.7% -3.5% 67% 33% -7.6%
≤30d 8 +34.2% +21.4% 75% 25% -8.4%
≤90d 13 +21.0% +9.5% 54% 15% -8.8%
all 58 +3.2% -6.6% 38% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 3% -9.3%
10% -15.6% 2% -18.0%
15% -23.7% 2% -25.9%
20% -31.2% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses22 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage330d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 +17%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $49 +$2 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $98 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $2 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $44 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $94 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $39 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $87 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $1 $0 -8%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Aug 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Aug 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 05 $43 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Aug 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 03 $89 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Aug 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 01 $4 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $46 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 12h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $40 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $11 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $49 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $45 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $45 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $43 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $7 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $49 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $2 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $49 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $49 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $12 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $27 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $22 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $39 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $9 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $29 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.55 · official $45.76 (match) · 213 history records