Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0093…2ffb crypto 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%33W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day103.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$147
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -13.2% -21.5% 49% 48% -18.8%
≤30d 67 -13.2% -21.5% 49% 48% -18.8%
≤90d 67 -13.2% -21.5% 49% 48% -18.8%
all 67 -13.2% -21.5% 49% 48% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 48% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 46% -26.6%
15% -35.9% 45% -33.7%
20% -42.2% 37% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses33 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day103.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 67¢ 62¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$23 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$35 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$11 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$13 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $77 +$37 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$27 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $31 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $44 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.66 · official $19.60 (match) · 149 history records