Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0089…5c4a crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$243 (+5%) realized +$243 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate66%27W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day47.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$446
sports 5% +$258
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.9% -8.7% 66% 51% -12.7%
≤30d 41 +0.9% -8.7% 66% 51% -12.7%
≤90d 41 +0.9% -8.7% 66% 51% -12.7%
all 41 +0.9% -8.7% 66% 51% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 51% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 39% -21.1%
15% -25.4% 24% -28.7%
20% -32.7% 17% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$72 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$243
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses27 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage4d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$5 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $514 −$505 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $236 −$230 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $655 +$77 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $566 +$107 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $445 +$85 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $428 +$40 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $445 +$44 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $205 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $483 −$57 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$102 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$44 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $81 +$36 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $65 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $86 +$24 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $66 +$22 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $56 +$19 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $127 +$29 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$25 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$21 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$13 +41%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $222 +$215 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records