Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
00 0x0085…711d other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$74 (+0%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate25%19W / 56L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 66% −$14
other 15% −$10
politics 13% −$8
sports 2% +$101
crypto 2% +$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -13.9%
≤30d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 21% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 59 +8.0% -2.3% 20% 15% -8.8%
all 75 +8.7% -1.6% 25% 16% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 16% -9.2%
10% -11.0% 16% -17.9%
15% -19.6% 15% -25.9%
20% -27.5% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses19 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage599d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $121 $122 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $195 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $203 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $12 +$12 +97%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $168 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 18 $8 +$5 +67%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $168 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 08 $164 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $161 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $176 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $342 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $172 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 01 $180 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $165 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $356 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $335 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 24 $163 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $174 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $177 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $178 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $170 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $7 +$7 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $14 +$11 +79%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $14 +$13 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 22h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 23h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $1 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $5 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $8 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $121 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 23d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 24d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 24d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 26d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 26d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $29 30d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $29 30d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 50¢ $12 30d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.78 · official $158.78 (match) · 273 history records