Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x0084…84c6 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 208d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$168 (-21%) realized −$196 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 208d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$36
other 31% −$140
politics 3% −$21
tech 1% −$7
culture 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-85.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 10 -83.8% -85.3% 0% 0% -85.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -85.3% 0% -85.2%
10% -86.8% 0% -86.6%
15% -88.0% 0% -87.9%
20% -89.2% 0% -89.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -84% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$17 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 10
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage208d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $500 $536 +$36 (+7%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $65 $57 −$8 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2025? Nov 27 $15 −$6 -39%
Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2025? Nov 27 $20 −$10 -49%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 27 $62 −$50 -80%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Nov 27 $4 −$3 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 27 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Nov 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Justin Bieber be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ariana Grande be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani not win the 2025 New York City mayoral election? Nov 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani get less than 30% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral Nov 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $592.53 · official $592.53 (match) · 18 history records