Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0084…4c4f crypto 1692 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,846 (+0%) realized +$1,833 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate96%1619W / 72L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 77d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +6.7% -3.5% 96% 45% -3.5%
≤30d 489 +0.3% -9.3% 96% 12% -9.3%
≤90d 1691 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 7% -9.8%
all 1691 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 7% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$243 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$1,833
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1619 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1691 / 1692
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$253
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Up 88¢ 100¢ $100 $114 +$13 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$12 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$18 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$12 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$13 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $100 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $100 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $100 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $102 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $100 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $100 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.62 · official $113.62 (match) · 3500 history records