Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:09:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x007f…233a other 587 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,806 (+4%) realized +$1,750 · open +$56
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate70%402W / 176L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$33
14 days−$20
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$210
world 27% +$949
tech 18% +$197
finance 7% +$314
politics 4% −$76
crypto 4% −$222
economics 3% +$168
sports 3% +$276
culture 0% −$9
weather 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.4% -6.4% 79% 21% -6.1%
≤30d 39 -1.0% -10.5% 69% 23% -6.4%
≤90d 163 -0.8% -10.2% 71% 29% -7.6%
all 578 +3.2% -6.6% 70% 32% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 32% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 18% -15.9%
15% -23.7% 10% -24.0%
20% -31.2% 7% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$787
Realized+$1,750
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses402 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)578 / 587
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$80
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 578 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 78¢ 88¢ $440 $497 +$56 (+13%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 76¢ 100¢ $116 $153 +$37 (+32%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 72¢ 79¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+11%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+8%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 75¢ 76¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? Yes 89¢ 71¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 60¢ 12¢ $22 $4 −$18 (-81%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Will the Republican Party win the AL-04 House seat? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision? No 32¢ 83¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+159%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 88¢ $27 $1 −$25 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $4 $0 +6%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $27 +$4 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $37 +$3 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 20 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 20 $51 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $83 +$3 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $83 +$5 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $83 +$39 +47%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 19 $25 −$2 -9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $27 +$15 +56%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $89 +$15 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $80 +$5 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 14 $280 +$24 +9%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $52 +$2 +3%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 11 $90 −$71 -79%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $93 +$13 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $89 −$21 -24%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $17 −$3 -18%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $227 +$13 +6%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $13 −$12 -93%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $265 +$15 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $7 −$5 -70%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $100 +$28 +28%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $32 +$8 +25%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin May 26 $5 +$1 +22%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 26 $162 −$2 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $78 +$116 +149%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $54 +$4 +7%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 24 $51 −$45 -89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $74 −$9 -12%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? May 21 $113 +$3 +3%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 20 $214 −$17 -8%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $12 −$11 -90%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec May 17 $314 +$7 +2%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? May 16 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 16 $16 −$12 -74%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 14 $81 +$18 +22%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-Ma May 12 $325 +$11 +3%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 12 $90 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 1h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 92¢ $37 27h
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $4 28h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $27 28h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 28h
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 95¢ $28 28h
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 97¢ $38 28h
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 95¢ $51 28h
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 93¢ $51 41h
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 96¢ $28 41h
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 96¢ $38 41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $56 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $58 43h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $102 43h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $58 43h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $58 43h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $58 43h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $21 43h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $30 43h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $26 43h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 44h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 44h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $23 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $15 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $787.20 · official $787.20 (match) · 3500 history records