Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x0079…1139 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,161 (-43%) realized −$1,077 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days−$226
14 days−$1,226
30 days−$1,226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$356
other 40% −$954
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -30.0% -36.7% 43% 43% -28.5%
≤30d 8 -38.8% -44.6% 38% 38% -62.9%
≤90d 8 -38.8% -44.6% 38% 38% -62.9%
all 8 -38.8% -44.6% 38% 38% -62.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.6% 38% -62.9%
10% -49.9% 38% -66.4%
15% -54.8% 25% -69.7%
20% -59.2% 0% -72.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$284 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$536
Realized−$1,077
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage9d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 57¢ $120 $92 −$28 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $203 −$61 -30%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $302 +$109 +36%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $112 −$110 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $121 +$41 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $92 +$46 +50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 34¢ $142 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $203 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $121 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $302 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $302 29h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $112 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $152 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $121 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $92 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $536.00 · official $536.00 (match) · 15 history records