Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0078…0690 sports 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,552 (-19%) realized −$4,552 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%39W / 69L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$353est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$2,456
14 days−$2,895
30 days−$4,689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$4,125
other 2% −$564
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -48.4% -53.3% 29% 29% -54.2%
≤30d 108 -22.1% -29.5% 36% 36% -27.1%
≤90d 108 -22.1% -29.5% 36% 36% -27.1%
all 108 -22.1% -29.5% 36% 36% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 36% -27.1%
10% -36.2% 32% -34.1%
15% -42.4% 30% -40.5%
20% -48.0% 27% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$195 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses39 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$353
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage29d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (63 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $20 −$19 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $31 −$31 -98%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $75 −$74 -99%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $50 −$14 -28%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $706 −$701 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $297 +$423 +143%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 15 $357 +$65 +18%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $607 −$599 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $512 +$101 +20%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $74 +$97 +132%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $319 +$38 +12%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 14 $18 −$17 -98%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $574 −$564 -98%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $485 −$475 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $419 −$414 -99%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $190 −$187 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $104 +$90 +87%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $142 −$140 -98%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $38 −$37 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $543 −$536 -99%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $151 +$158 +105%
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 11 $457 −$456 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $388 +$241 +62%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $293 −$290 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $688 +$285 +41%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $186 −$182 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $140 +$742 +529%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $43 −$42 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $42 −$3 -6%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 11 $21 −$20 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 10 $218 −$215 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $92 +$151 +164%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $43 −$34 -80%
Tucuman: Maximo Zeitune vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 10 $207 −$205 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $99 +$109 +110%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 10 $108 −$107 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 10 $196 +$165 +84%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $79 +$22 +28%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $50 +$30 +60%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $283 −$275 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic May 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $131 −$131 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $497 −$365 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 41¢ $29 1h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 24¢ $6 16h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 23¢ $14 16h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 23¢ $21 41h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $1 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $30 3d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 25¢ $3 3d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 25¢ $19 3d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 25¢ $6 3d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 25¢ $3 3d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 25¢ $0 3d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 25¢ $0 3d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 25¢ $4 3d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 28¢ $11 3d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 28¢ $7 3d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 28¢ $5 3d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 28¢ $13 3d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 27¢ $39 3d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 37¢ $1 3d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 38¢ $49 3d
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 74¢ $21 3d
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 75¢ $685 3d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Denis Shapovalov 100¢ $720 3d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 46¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 41¢ $287 3d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 44¢ $15 3d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 44¢ $1 3d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 44¢ $31 3d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 44¢ $2 3d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 44¢ $77 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 349 history records