Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:50:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
00 0x0077…c2d1 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$134 (+33%) realized +$136 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$2
sports 45% +$127
weather 3% +$4
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +99.8% +80.8% 100% 100% +76.4%
≤90d 10 +22.8% +11.1% 80% 50% +50.5%
all 10 +22.8% +11.1% 80% 50% +50.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.1% 50% +50.5%
10% +0.5% 50% +36.1%
15% -9.2% 40% +22.9%
20% -18.1% 30% +10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$6 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.41 per $1 lost it wins $12.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage88d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $101 +$95 +93%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 201.5 May 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16? May 23 $6 +$11 +176%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $5 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 16? May 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) May 15 $42 +$16 +40%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 24 $22 +$19 +86%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on March 25? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 23 $3 $0 +2%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 23 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 1h
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 51¢ $101 26d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 201.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 34d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 34d
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) BUY Canadiens 71¢ $42 55d
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) BUY Raptors 53¢ $22 56d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $3 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $3 88d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $4 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.87 · official $197.87 (match) · 21 history records