Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0075…909b other 35 markets active 3h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate23%8W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 27% −$13
politics 14% $0
crypto 13% +$2
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.6% -12.8% 12% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 11% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 11% 0% -9.5%
all 35 -2.5% -11.8% 23% 3% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -11.5%
10% -20.3% 3% -19.9%
15% -28.0% 3% -27.7%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses8 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage452d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $44 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -22%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 15 $14 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 13 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $13 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $45 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $44 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $45 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $10 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $16 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $17 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $17 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $8 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $37 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $45 8d
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 356d
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? BUY No 99¢ $1 380d
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? BUY No 94¢ $14 397d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? SELL No 98¢ $14 397d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? BUY No 98¢ $14 397d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? SELL No 95¢ $14 397d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records