Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:39:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

00
0x0074…0767
other · 1433 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$359 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$336 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,618
Realized−$336
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1237 / 161
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1398 / 1433
History coverage108d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 35 History 1398 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$188
14 days+$137
30 days+$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this week? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $150 $160 +$10 (+7%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 88¢ 91¢ $150 $155 +$5 (+3%)
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $150 $151 +$2 (+1%)
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 87¢ 88¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+0%)
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 12, 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m? No 80¢ 98¢ $87 $106 +$19 (+22%)
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? No 91¢ 98¢ $99 $106 +$7 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $99 $102 +$3 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? No 90¢ 90¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? No 91¢ 74¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 92¢ 74¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 93¢ 74¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will "The Witness" be the top global Netflix show this week? Yes 93¢ 97¢ $68 $71 +$3 (+5%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026? No 93¢ 60¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+7%)
Will "The Witness" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? No 92¢ 97¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? No 89¢ 94¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+7%)
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $31 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $29 +$2 +7%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195-$200 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $25 +$3 +14%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +8%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $100 +$8 +8%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $59 +$4 +8%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +11%
Will "David" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $14 +$1 +8%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $66 +$5 +8%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $98 +$9 +9%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 09 $101 +$12 +12%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $100 +$11 +11%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $100 +$15 +15%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 08 $100 +$8 +8%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $24 +$2 +8%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Jun 08 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $99 +$9 +9%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $100 +$12 +12%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $33 +$2 +7%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $57 +$6 +10%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June Jun 03 $21 +$3 +14%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $41 +$7 +16%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $45 −$45 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Encore Medical’s market cap be greater than $55M at market close Jun 01 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Encore Medical’s market cap be between $50M and $55M at market cl Jun 01 $19 +$2 +8%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $101 +$13 +13%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $630b and $640b on May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $620b and $630b on May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 31 $74 +$6 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on May 29, 2026? May 30 $100 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$219
tech 18% −$186
politics 14% −$26
culture 13% +$86
crypto 6% +$170
world 4% −$181
economics 1% −$15
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 89¢ $33 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $19 8h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $19 9h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 9h
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 11h
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $13 12h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 14h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195-$200 on the final day of trading of t BUY No 88¢ $25 16h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY No 93¢ $20 16h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 18h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $149 18h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $50 18h
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 95¢ $28 22h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 93¢ $2 24h
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 94¢ $123 24h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 92¢ $116 24h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 84¢ $3 25h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 87¢ $147 26h
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $20 28h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $16 29h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 88¢ $14 29h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 88¢ $11 29h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 88¢ $8 29h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 30h
Will "The Witness" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 30h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 global Netflix show this BUY Yes 94¢ $150 31h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 93¢ $9 32h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $20 33h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 92¢ $27 33h
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +8.9% -1.5% 100% 23% -1.5%
≤30d 191 +3.7% -6.1% 95% 26% -6.5%
≤90d 1136 -0.6% -10.1% 93% 15% -10.2%
all 1398 -0.5% -10.0% 88% 25% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 25% -10.2%
10% -18.6% 11% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 8% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,618.00 · official $2,617.27 (match) · 3500 history records