Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x006b…ff69 crypto 348 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$863 (-10%) realized −$863 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%104W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$464
7 days−$632
14 days−$632
30 days−$632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$993
other 2% −$167
sports 1% −$99
weather 0% −$35
world 0% −$20
politics 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -26.4% -33.4% 35% 27% -35.7%
≤30d 142 -26.4% -33.4% 35% 27% -35.7%
≤90d 348 -27.0% -34.0% 30% 25% -25.4%
all 348 -27.0% -34.0% 30% 25% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 25% -25.4%
10% -40.3% 21% -32.5%
15% -46.1% 17% -39.0%
20% -51.3% 14% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$17 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$863
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses104 / 244
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)348 / 348
History coverage61d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 348 Trades
no open positions (178 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$40 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$32 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$46 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $123 −$49 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$15 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $43 −$22 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$72 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $54 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $74 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $53 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 687 history records