Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:46:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
00 0x0069…16ae crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%42W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$6
crypto 13% +$2
politics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 53 +0.1% -9.4% 79% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses42 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage528d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $75 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 01 $74 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 01 $68 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $74 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 03 $74 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $8 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 04 $8 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 04 $14 $0 +1%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $5,951 −$6 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Mar 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? Mar 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 by February 28 2025? 1 Mar 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $420 - 425b on February 28? Mar 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $160 by January 31, 2025? Feb 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by January 31? Feb 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Feb 12 $19 $0 -0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Feb 10 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $74 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $26 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 31d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $75 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $18 91d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 99¢ $74 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 123d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $42 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $8 150d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 151d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $68 151d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $17 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $74 183d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 211d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $60 211d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 241d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $51 242d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 272d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $27 272d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $47 274d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? BUY No 100¢ $49 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $23 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $50 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 363d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 364d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 393d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 394d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 395d
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? BUY No 100¢ $16 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.97 · official $73.97 (match) · 110 history records