Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

00
0x0069…e341
weather · 426 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$133 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$129 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses162 / 261
Open positions3
Markets (closed)423 / 426
History coverage113d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 423 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 +$2 +131%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$4 +322%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$2 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 07 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 06 $2 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 6? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 28? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on May 29? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 27? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 27? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 26? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 4? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 05 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$3 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 05 $2 +$4 +244%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 04 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 28? May 28 $5 +$3 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% −$74
world 6% −$58
crypto 2% −$4
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 42¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 41¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 8? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 8? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 45% 45% -12.9%
≤30d 111 -19.9% -27.5% 30% 28% -26.9%
≤90d 410 -5.4% -14.5% 38% 30% -17.3%
all 423 -6.1% -15.1% 38% 30% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 30% -20.2%
10% -23.2% 26% -27.9%
15% -30.6% 19% -34.8%
20% -37.4% 15% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.53 · official $2.53 (match) · 1313 history records