Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x0067…cfb4 other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$129 (-10%) realized −$104 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%27W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$109
14 days+$109
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$31
sports 25% +$4
world 10% −$126
politics 8% −$72
finance 5% +$13
crypto 4% +$65
tech 2% −$19
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +75.6% +58.8% 58% 58% +19.5%
≤30d 19 +75.6% +58.8% 58% 58% +19.5%
≤90d 21 +58.8% +43.7% 52% 52% -7.3%
all 82 -7.2% -16.1% 33% 30% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 30% -16.7%
10% -24.1% 29% -24.7%
15% -31.4% 24% -31.9%
20% -38.1% 21% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$104
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses27 / 55
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)82 / 93
History coverage195d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-60%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Yes 16¢ 26¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 +$3 +57%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $2 +$27 +1297%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $99 +$31 +32%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $16 +$4 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $13 +$3 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 +$6 +237%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $17 +$24 +140%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 29 $4 −$4 -100%
North Korea missile launch by February 28? Apr 29 $94 −$94 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Feb 17 $4 −$4 -100%
76ers vs. Raptors Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Thunder Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3) Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on December 4? Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Feb 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on December 5? Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Feb 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 10–15 seconds? Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will d4vd rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Feb 17 $3 +$6 +246%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in December? Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 17 $56 −$37 -66%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Feb 17 $2 +$7 +457%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $6 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $10 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs BUY 35¢ $25 21h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New BUY 7¢ $2 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 32¢ $26 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY 33¢ $10 31h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $123 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Saudi Ara BUY 4¢ $3 44h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $10 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $16 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $13 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 76¢ $10 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Swed BUY 12¢ $10 47h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 8¢ $10 2d
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $10 3d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $78 3d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 3d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.50 · official $64.50 · 191 history records