Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0066…b477 sports 976 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$248 (+0%) realized +$248 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%948W / 26L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$365per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$798now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$58
14 days+$120
30 days+$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$110
other 2% +$6
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 346 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 934 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 974 +0.7% -8.9% 97% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 1% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$798
Realized+$248
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses948 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)974 / 976
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$365
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 974 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Falcons Esport 100¢ 100¢ $465 $465 +$0 (+0%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage G2 Esports 100¢ 100¢ $332 $332 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 29 $999 +$1 +0%
Brasov: Andres Santamarta vs Federico Cina Jun 29 $85 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $441 $0 +0%
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports - Map 2 Wi Jun 29 $500 $0 +0%
Milan: Daniel Rincon vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 29 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports - Map 1 Wi Jun 29 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Julie&cie vs eternal premium - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $490 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio Jun 29 $999 +$1 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Liquid vs FaZe Clan (BO1) - South America Leag Jun 29 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South Ame Jun 28 $999 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $294 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $500 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 28 $999 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $1,141 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Aimhaus (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group B Jun 28 $46 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - Unite Jun 28 $57 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winne Jun 28 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 1 Winne Jun 28 $500 $0 +0%
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 28 $500 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 28 $500 $0 +0%
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 28 $500 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,693 +$2 +0%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort Jun 28 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Jun 27 $197 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 27 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $155 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 27 $192 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 27 $995 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 27 $999 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 27 $500 $0 +0%
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G Jun 27 $500 $0 +0%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $999 +$1 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ Jun 27 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 27 $124 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $500 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $1,420 +$1 +0%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Piracicaba: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 26 $261 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $111 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Valorant: Contra vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Se Jun 26 $258 $0 +0%
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $877 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Falcons Esport 100¢ $91 1m
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Falcons Esport 100¢ $29 6m
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Falcons Esport 100¢ $31 8m
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Falcons Esport 100¢ $265 8m
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Falcons Esport 100¢ $51 9m
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY G2 Esports 100¢ $20 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY G2 Esports 100¢ $3 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY G2 Esports 100¢ $241 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY G2 Esports 100¢ $68 1h
Brasov: Andres Santamarta vs Federico Cina BUY Andres Santamarta 100¢ $10 3h
Brasov: Andres Santamarta vs Federico Cina BUY Andres Santamarta 100¢ $45 3h
Brasov: Andres Santamarta vs Federico Cina BUY Andres Santamarta 100¢ $20 4h
Brasov: Andres Santamarta vs Federico Cina BUY Andres Santamarta 100¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ - Map 2 Winner BUY Prestige 100¢ $500 4h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY Prestige 100¢ $500 4h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY Prestige 100¢ $500 4h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $500 5h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $7 6h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $7 6h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $69 6h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $7 6h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $9 6h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $11 7h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $217 7h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 100¢ $90 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $797.67 · official $797.67 (match) · 3500 history records