Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0063…2dd2 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (385 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$515 (+12%) realized +$459 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$868per market
Trades / day384.5pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$419
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.8% -22.0% 67% 33% +12.6%
≤30d 3 -13.8% -22.0% 67% 33% +12.6%
≤90d 3 -13.8% -22.0% 67% 33% +12.6%
all 3 -13.8% -22.0% 67% 33% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover384.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 33% +12.6%
10% -29.5% 33% +1.8%
15% ← realistic here -36.3% 33% -8.0%
20% -42.5% 33% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
42.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$142 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.55 per $1 lost it wins $3.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$459
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$868
Trades / day384.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner illwill 36¢ 41¢ $110 $124 +$14 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner illwill 48¢ 100¢ $38 $80 +$42 (+110%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $942 +$71 +8%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $849 +$433 +51%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $1,181 −$142 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 41¢ $7 3m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 41¢ $4 3m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 38¢ $18 3m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 36¢ $12 3m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 64¢ $18 3m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 30¢ $2 5m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 70¢ $13 5m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 30¢ $2 5m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 61¢ $6 6m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 41¢ $4 6m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 36¢ $2 9m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 36¢ $7 9m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 36¢ $7 9m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 36¢ $6 9m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 36¢ $9 9m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 42¢ $9 15m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 41¢ $12 15m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 39¢ $11 15m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 39¢ $12 15m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 39¢ $28 15m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 65¢ $3 16m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 35¢ $36 16m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 74¢ $59 16m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 70¢ $14 16m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 28¢ $13 16m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 72¢ $59 16m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 28¢ $19 16m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 67¢ $7 19m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 38¢ $30 19m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 63¢ $16 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.06 · official $204.06 (match) · 390 history records