Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0063…62b2 crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$49 (+13%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%37W / 39L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -1.2% -10.6% 49% 43% -7.1%
≤30d 76 -1.2% -10.6% 49% 43% -7.1%
≤90d 76 -1.2% -10.6% 49% 43% -7.1%
all 76 -1.2% -10.6% 49% 43% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 43% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 33% -16.0%
15% -27.0% 28% -24.1%
20% -34.1% 20% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses37 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 64¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $17 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $13 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.21 · official $1.21 (match) · 215 history records