Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
00 0x0063…d005 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,684 (-12%) realized −$4,761 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate75%38W / 13L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$735per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$2,577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,188
7 days−$4,850
14 days−$4,850
30 days−$4,850
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$6,188
sports 15% +$1,004
politics 3% +$404
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +4.5% -5.4% 78% 72% -27.5%
≤30d 18 +4.5% -5.4% 78% 72% -27.5%
≤90d 51 +0.5% -9.1% 75% 69% -21.5%
all 51 +0.5% -9.1% 75% 69% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 69% -21.5%
10% -17.8% 47% -29.0%
15% -25.7% 29% -35.8%
20% -33.0% 12% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$584) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$860 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$2,577
Realized−$4,761
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses38 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage74d
Avg bet$735
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $2,500 $2,577 +$77 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,020 +$962 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,522 −$2,522 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,045 −$5,000 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,016 +$596 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,645 +$189 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,510 +$361 +14%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,706 +$226 +13%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $27 +$5 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $251 +$53 +21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 +$65 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$60 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$355 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $153 +$192 +126%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $504 +$162 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 −$500 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,504 +$143 +10%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $45 −$44 -99%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 18 $72 +$5 +7%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $913 −$908 -99%
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $200 +$83 +41%
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $309 +$74 +24%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $300 +$197 +66%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $500 +$238 +48%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $500 +$197 +40%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1,550 +$223 +14%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $500 +$228 +46%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $632 +$99 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $500 +$92 +18%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $250 +$60 +24%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $250 +$136 +54%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $100 +$32 +32%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $150 −$150 -100%
Will FCSB win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $400 +$292 +73%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $200 +$64 +32%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $200 +$155 +78%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $242 +$100 +41%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $504 +$38 +8%
Will FC Universitatea Cluj win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 Apr 18 $400 +$68 +17%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 Apr 18 $377 +$59 +16%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $350 +$84 +24%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $28 +$14 +50%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $500 +$210 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,506 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,982 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,020 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,522 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5,045 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,612 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,835 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,871 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 89¢ $1,645 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $2,510 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $5,016 30h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $1,706 47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $27 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 44¢ $203 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 BUY 14¢ $103 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $305 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 82¢ $251 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $266 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $861 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $153 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $666 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $504 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,647 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,577.45 · official $2,574.73 (match) · 105 history records