Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:49:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0061…8fd6 crypto 3082 markets active 26d ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (310 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,310 (+687%) realized +$1,288 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%30W / 3486L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day309.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$77
14 days−$77
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$34
other 8% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (310 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-83.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 434 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1613 -92.2% -92.9% 0% 0% -92.3%
≤90d 3516 -82.1% -83.8% 1% 1% -79.7%
all 3516 -82.1% -83.8% 1% 1% -79.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover309.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -83.8% 1% -79.7%
10% ← realistic here -85.3% 1% -81.7%
15% -86.8% 1% -83.4%
20% -88.1% 1% -85.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -88% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×63.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$1,288
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses30 / 3486
Open positions19
Markets (closed)3516 / 3082
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day309.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 3516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes $0 $8 +$8 (+7600%)
Will Acción Popular (AP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes $0 $5 +$4 (+2200%)
Will FREPASNA win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes $0 $4 +$4 (+3750%)
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes $0 $4 +$3 (+3440%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? No $0 $3 +$3 (+1400%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? No $0 $1 +$1 (+450%)
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Acción Popular (AP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Podemos Perú (PP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Avanza País – Partido de Integración Social (AvP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 481 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on April 21? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 28? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on De Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during t Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 26? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $410-$420 on the final day of trading o Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on February 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Meta (META) finish week of February 16 above $640? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ron Johnson vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security App Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Savannah Louie be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 13? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Rocket League: NOVO Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on March 30? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top US Netflix show this wee Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 10? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 3? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 22? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on January 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake news" during Memphis Roundtable? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gennings Dunker be drafted 9th overall in the 2026 pro football d Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on February 5? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $110? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 25? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chicago Bears draft Arvell Reese in the 2026 pro football draft? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Tulane Green Wave be the #11 seed in the 2025-2026 College Fo Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Pharco FC vs. El Gouna SC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on December Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" during Christmas Eve service Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
CD La Serena vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (HIGH) in March 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up $0 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.08 · official $25.09 (match) · 3500 history records