Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x005e…129c crypto 267 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$190 (+2%) realized +$205 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%124W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days+$135
14 days+$113
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$142
other 12% +$154
world 5% −$115
politics 4% −$155
sports 2% +$6
finance 0% +$39
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +7.7% -2.6% 58% 52% +4.3%
≤30d 41 +12.0% +1.3% 54% 49% +1.6%
≤90d 255 -1.8% -11.2% 49% 41% -10.6%
all 255 -1.8% -11.2% 49% 41% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 41% -10.6%
10% -19.7% 35% -19.1%
15% -27.4% 29% -26.9%
20% -34.5% 20% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses124 / 131
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)255 / 267
History coverage72d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $17 −$8 (-31%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $25 $14 −$12 (-46%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$119 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$11 +11%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $37 −$35 -94%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$23 +45%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$20 +132%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$30 +73%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$17 -84%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $3 +$15 +506%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 25 $5 +$8 +159%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $5 +$2 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $16 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $11 −$6 -57%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $5 −$4 -80%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 18 $15 −$9 -57%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $6 −$5 -76%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn May 18 $25 −$16 -63%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 18 $40 +$20 +50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 17 $135 −$131 -97%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 17 $21 −$14 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $2 7h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 7h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $10 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $10 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 27h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.89 · official $279.83 (match) · 820 history records