Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
00 0x005c…89a8 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$593per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$125
sports 7% +$124
crypto 1% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +5.6% -4.5% 75% 50% -5.7%
≤30d 8 +5.6% -4.5% 75% 50% -5.7%
≤90d 10 -4.7% -13.7% 70% 40% -9.5%
all 10 -4.7% -13.7% 70% 40% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 40% -9.5%
10% -22.0% 30% -18.2%
15% -29.5% 30% -26.1%
20% -36.4% 20% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$206 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage48d
Avg bet$593
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 37¢ 74¢ $40 $79 +$39 (+99%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$93 +91%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $101 +$8 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $102 +$20 +19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $151 +$4 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $170 −$126 -74%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $209 +$91 +43%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $5,047 +$348 +7%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $400 −$393 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 3m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $194 4m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 80¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 81¢ $109 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 60¢ $121 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $0 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $134 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 24¢ $21 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 12¢ $24 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $109 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $209 3d
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 94¢ $370 45d
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 94¢ $2,155 45d
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 94¢ $500 45d
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 94¢ $400 45d
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 94¢ $500 45d
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 94¢ $1,470 45d
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 87¢ $5,047 45d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.46 · official $79.46 (match) · 33 history records