Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x005b…6f47 other 9 markets active 11h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$262 (-25%) realized −$262 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$3
world 26% −$241
sports 18% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.6% +8.2% 56% 56% -30.5%
≤30d 9 +19.6% +8.2% 56% 56% -30.5%
≤90d 9 +19.6% +8.2% 56% 56% -30.5%
all 9 +19.6% +8.2% 56% 56% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 56% -30.5%
10% -2.2% 56% -37.1%
15% -11.6% 56% -43.2%
20% -20.3% 44% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$134 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $78 +$35 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $234 −$156 -67%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$36 +238%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $271 −$241 -89%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$13 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $288 +$171 +59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$9 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 11h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 11h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $78 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $78 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $234 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $18 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $29 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $28 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records