Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x005a…b1d7 other 237 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$23
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$34
sports 24% −$20
politics 9% −$4
culture 6% −$8
crypto 5% −$3
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage127d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $384 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $426 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $235 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $390 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $416 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $275 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $347 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $316 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $297 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $313 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $510 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $253 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $155 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $206 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $554 −$2 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $282 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $197 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $432 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $128 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $488 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $131 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $202 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $126 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 5h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $52 6h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $52 8h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 8h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 9h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 15h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 17h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 18h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 20h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 21h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 22h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 24h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 26h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 31h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 32h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 33h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 35h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 37h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 38h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 39h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 40h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 42h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 43h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.82 · official $51.82 (match) · 1292 history records