Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
00 0x0059…120c other 219 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL −$78 (-6%) realized −$73 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +66% what you keep after slip
Net edge+66%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%73W / 101L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$848
7 days+$908
14 days+$800
30 days+$786
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$163
sports 12% +$553
crypto 6% +$12
world 2% +$44
culture 1% $0
tech 1% −$7
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+65.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +163.2% +138.1% 54% 52% +133.9%
≤30d 161 +94.4% +75.9% 43% 42% +66.7%
≤90d 161 +94.4% +75.9% 43% 42% +66.7%
all 174 +83.0% +65.6% 42% 40% +62.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +65.6% 40% +62.8%
10% +49.8% 37% +47.2%
15% +35.3% 36% +33.0%
20% +22.0% 31% +20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +83% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +197% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$3 · ×4.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses73 / 101
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions33
Markets (closed)174 / 219
History coverage159d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? No 82¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? No 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 82¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 13¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $5 +$49 +1073%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $5 +$59 +1180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN Jun 28 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $6 +$11 +184%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $6 +$12 +199%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $5 +$46 +912%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN Jun 28 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $20 +$51 +257%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $6 +$12 +205%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $11 +$11 +103%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $5 +$30 +606%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $20 +$32 +161%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $5 +$38 +762%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-2 Jun 28 $3 +$68 +2216%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $6 +$12 +200%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $10 +$16 +164%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $10 +$16 +156%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $5 +$32 +644%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $5 +$52 +1032%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $10 +$15 +147%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $6 +$32 +537%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN Jun 28 $8 +$34 +422%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $5 +$77 +1535%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $1 +$9 +874%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $2 +$13 +650%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN Jun 27 $8 +$20 +253%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 27 $6 +$20 +335%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 27 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AN Jun 27 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-2 Jun 27 $3 +$24 +786%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in Jun 27 $3 +$7 +242%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $2 +$5 +263%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +46%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will United States win BUY 4¢ $5 5m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will United States win on 2026-07- BUY 28¢ $20 11m
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-2 BUY 42¢ $10 19m
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 76¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $20 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $4 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $3 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AN SELL 65¢ $34 33h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 64¢ $7 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 8¢ $5 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 6¢ $5 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 3¢ $5 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 5¢ $5 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 8¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.86 · official $192.10 · 325 history records