Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

00 0x0057…ece6 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$88 (+29%) realized −$57 · open +$145

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip

Net edge+28%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$101per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+28.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+41.6%	+28.1%	100%	100%	+28.1%
≤30d	1	+41.6%	+28.1%	100%	100%	+28.1%
≤90d	1	+41.6%	+28.1%	100%	100%	+28.1%
all	1	+41.6%	+28.1%	100%	100%	+28.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+28.1%	100%	+28.1%
10%	+15.8%	100%	+15.8%
15%	+4.6%	100%	+4.6%
20%	-5.6%	0%	-5.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +42% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$42 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage

Net worth$244

Realized−$57

Unrealized+$145

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage27d

Avg bet$101

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	68¢	99¢	$99	$145	+$46 (+46%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	0¢	64¢	$0	$99	+$99 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$101	+$42	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	11d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	27d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.09 · official $244.09 (match) · 4 history records