Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
00 0x0056…ee7a crypto 982 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$546 (-3%) realized −$326 · open −$220
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%568W / 648L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$8,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,019
7 days−$980
14 days−$603
30 days−$447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$389
other 45% −$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 363 -84.6% -86.1% 10% 9% -53.3%
≤30d 497 -58.1% -62.1% 30% 26% -17.0%
≤90d 915 -38.0% -43.9% 41% 35% -15.9%
all 1216 -28.5% -35.3% 47% 41% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 41% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.5% 32% -23.3%
15% -47.2% 26% -30.8%
20% -52.3% 20% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$8,024
Realized−$326
Unrealized−$220
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses568 / 648
Open positions49
Markets (closed)1216 / 982
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 1216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 80¢ $1,326 $1,368 +$42 (+3%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $1,281 $1,291 +$9 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $664 $720 +$55 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $761 $685 −$77 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $528 $503 −$25 (-5%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $439 $446 +$7 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $459 $433 −$27 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $486 $386 −$100 (-21%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 68¢ 72¢ $308 $330 +$22 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $234 $260 +$27 (+11%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 24¢ $203 $198 −$5 (-2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $197 $198 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 23¢ 19¢ $194 $163 −$31 (-16%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 78¢ 78¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the World Cup? No 91¢ 91¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 43¢ $79 $90 +$10 (+13%)
Will Spain win the World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $69 $56 −$13 (-19%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $46 $41 −$5 (-10%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 80¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 48¢ $38 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $64 $38 −$26 (-41%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-10%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $32 $30 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 448 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $4 32m
Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 32m
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 32m
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,024.44 · official $8,024.44 (match) · 3500 history records