trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 96¢ | $8,487 | $10,115 | +$1,628 (+19%) |
| Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 21¢ | 34¢ | $552 | $860 | +$308 (+56%) |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? | Jun 10 | $688 | +$67 | +10% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? | Jun 09 | $4,131 | +$433 | +10% |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $548 | +$119 | +22% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? | Jun 05 | $2,952 | +$376 | +13% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +13.7% | +2.9% | 100% | 50% | +1.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -9.1% | -17.7% | 80% | 40% | +1.3% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -9.1% | -17.7% | 80% | 40% | +1.3% |
| all | 5 | -9.1% | -17.7% | 80% | 40% | +1.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.7% | 40% | +1.3% |
| 10% | -25.6% | 0% | -8.4% |
| 15% | -32.8% | 0% | -17.3% |
| 20% | -39.4% | 0% | -25.4% |