Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
00 0x0052…84e1 other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$222 (+8%) realized +$200 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%28W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$901now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days+$188
14 days+$188
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$212
world 3% +$22
crypto 1% −$9
sports 1% −$16
politics 1% −$7
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.0% -14.1% 55% 55% +1.5%
≤30d 11 -5.0% -14.1% 55% 55% +1.5%
≤90d 57 +3.7% -6.2% 49% 42% -0.2%
all 57 +3.7% -6.2% 49% 42% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 42% -0.2%
10% -15.2% 25% -9.8%
15% -23.3% 21% -18.5%
20% -30.9% 11% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$901
Realized+$200
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses28 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)57 / 65
History coverage80d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $245 $262 +$16 (+7%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $74 $71 −$4 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $396 +$214 +54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $112 −$20 -18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$9 -44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $67 +$8 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $49 −$12 -24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$38 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $404 +$193 +48%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 16 $15 −$3 -19%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 16 $2 $0 -12%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $3 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 15 $6 +$3 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 15 $3 +$1 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 15 $18 +$4 +22%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 13 $4 $0 -4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 10 $4 $0 -3%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? May 10 $2 $0 -7%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? May 10 $8 $0 -4%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $10 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $1 +$9 +809%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $4 +$1 +12%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 07 $3 +$2 +86%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Sabres vs. Bruins May 02 $3 +$2 +83%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 01 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? May 01 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $9 +$1 +16%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) Apr 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $4 +$2 +40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $6 +$1 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on April 22? Apr 25 $4 +$1 +17%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 25 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $5 $0 +8%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $96 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $151 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $110 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $92 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $92 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $112 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 46h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $75 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $67 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $37 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $152 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $252 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $96 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $404 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $49 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 12d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 38d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 38d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 28¢ $3 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $901.34 · official $901.34 (match) · 156 history records