Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x004f…9612 sports 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 675d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,501 (-27%) realized −$2,021 · open −$480
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%52W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$907
other 25% −$772
world 13% −$236
politics 4% −$310
finance 1% −$94
economics 1% −$11
tech 1% +$9
weather 1% −$100
crypto 1% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -24.0% -31.2% 44% 44% -27.9%
≤90d 26 -20.8% -28.3% 42% 42% -25.1%
all 156 -35.3% -41.5% 33% 31% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.5% 31% -31.2%
10% -47.1% 26% -37.8%
15% -52.2% 23% -43.8%
20% -56.9% 20% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$41 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

675d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized−$2,021
Unrealized−$480
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses52 / 104
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions18
Markets (closed)156 / 174
History coverage675d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 59¢ 40¢ $219 $150 −$69 (-31%)
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Farman Hasanov 62¢ 60¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 65¢ 48¢ $64 $47 −$17 (-27%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $52 $32 −$21 (-40%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Manuel Torres 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Main Card) Michal Oleksiejczuk 53¢ 52¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-24%)
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jean Matsumoto 34¢ 100¢ $7 $22 +$14 (+194%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-30%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-55%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $29 $10 −$19 (-67%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $20 $8 −$13 (-63%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? Yes 25¢ 5¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-82%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $242 $1 −$241 (-100%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-98%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $61 +$34 +57%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $60 −$59 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$25 +97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $84 +$42 +51%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $31 +$24 +79%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 29 $26 −$25 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 29 $26 −$26 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 03 $35 +$26 +73%
UFC Fight Night: John Castaneda vs. Mark Vologdin (Bantamweight, Preli May 03 $75 −$12 -16%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) May 03 $40 +$27 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, May 03 $42 +$37 +90%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $60 −$59 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 02 $26 −$26 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Daria Zhelezniakova vs. Melissa Croden (Women's Banta Apr 18 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 18 $25 +$23 +93%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $38 −$38 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $30 +$36 +119%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 05 $40 +$33 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 05 $65 +$44 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Mar 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Mar 31 $14 −$13 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 29 $50 −$10 -19%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? Mar 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5 Mar 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 15 $154 +$87 +56%
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Feb 28 $25 +$3 +10%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Feb 28 $50 +$4 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Feb 28 $93 +$111 +120%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $80 +$111 +138%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$32 +317%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $46 +$70 +153%
Another US bank failure by March 31? Feb 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Feb 09 $10 +$4 +42%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Feb 09 $33 +$35 +106%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $40 +$62 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 34¢ $8 23m
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 52¢ $25 1h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 53¢ $25 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 62¢ $51 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $95 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $61 7d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 62¢ $9 7d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 71¢ $50 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $25 13d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $49 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $126 28d
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Ding Meng 54¢ $26 28d
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Zhu Kangjie 51¢ $26 28d
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww BUY Jaqueline Amorim 55¢ $31 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $84 32d
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant BUY Jacqueline Cavalcanti 57¢ $61 41d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 46¢ $25 42d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, BUY Jack Della Maddalena 51¢ $60 56d
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim BUY Shamil Gaziev 50¢ $26 56d
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Colby Thicknesse 57¢ $35 56d
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, BUY Davey Grant 52¢ $42 62d
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Gauge Young 59¢ $40 69d
UFC Fight Night: Daria Zhelezniakova vs. Melissa Croden (Women's Banta BUY Daria Zhelezniakova 46¢ $20 69d
UFC Fight Night: John Castaneda vs. Mark Vologdin (Bantamweight, Preli BUY John Castaneda 59¢ $75 69d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 51¢ $25 76d
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early BUY Loopy Godínez 42¢ $26 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.49 · official $433.49 (match) · 538 history records