Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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00 0x004c…d7e1 crypto 1699 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$185 (-4%) realized −$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%815W / 794L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day50.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$71
14 days+$104
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$31
other 1% +$48
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +35.7% +22.8% 16% 14% +25.1%
≤30d 801 +4.4% -5.6% 51% 50% -7.2%
≤90d 1609 +1.2% -8.4% 51% 50% -9.6%
all 1609 +1.2% -8.4% 51% 50% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 50% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 50% -18.3%
15% -25.2% 49% -26.2%
20% -32.5% 47% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses815 / 794
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1609 / 1699
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day50.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1609 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$10 +3233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$24 +4067%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$24 +4067%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 +$29 +112%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.51 · official $8.16 · 3500 history records