Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x004a…0ba1 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 409d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$766 (-33%) realized −$767 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip
Net edge+70%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$239
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$162
politics 31% −$97
other 28% −$506
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+70.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +138.8% +116.0% 50% 50% -8.6%
≤30d 12 +138.8% +116.0% 50% 50% -8.6%
≤90d 13 +120.4% +99.4% 46% 46% -18.4%
all 24 +88.3% +70.4% 29% 29% -40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +70.4% 29% -40.5%
10% +54.1% 29% -46.2%
15% +39.2% 29% -51.4%
20% +25.6% 29% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +139% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$84 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

409d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$767
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage409d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 −$58 -81%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$60 -60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $372 −$368 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$60 +118%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$101 +246%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $10 +$127 +1239%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$100 +195%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 +$80 +211%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$76 +150%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$8 -53%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 2.8% and 3 Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Yankees vs. Red Sox Sep 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Sep 15 $92 −$3 -3%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 12 $255 −$103 -40%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Sep 01 $189 −$73 -39%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 17 $9 +$112 +1249%
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 17 $180 −$30 -17%
Taylor Swift announces new original album by September 7? Aug 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Pope require 5–6 ballots? May 08 $93 −$88 -95%
Will the next Pope require 11–14 ballots? May 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the next Pope require 9–10 ballots? May 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the next Pope require 7–8 ballots? May 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $14 33m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $21 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $41 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17 BUY 21¢ $51 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $71 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $372 7h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $111 28h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 29h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $141 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New SELL 96¢ $138 46h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $151 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $118 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New BUY $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $127 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $7 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $38 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 2.8% and 3 BUY Yes 23¢ $100 69d
Yankees vs. Red Sox BUY Yankees 11¢ $89 276d
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes 63¢ $89 276d
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 BUY Yes 65¢ $92 278d
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL Yes 31¢ $91 278d
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY Yes 39¢ $115 289d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.43 · official $21.43 (match) · 46 history records