Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
00 0x0046…1337 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1
other 34% $0
politics 14% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.9%
all 17 -0.6% -10.0% 47% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage398d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 26 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 -6%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bachelet win the Chilean presidential election? May 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 24 $23 $0 +1%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 18 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 17 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $40 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $40 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $25 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $12 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $36 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $18 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $17 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $1 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $0 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $0 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $20 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 24d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 183d
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? SELL No 99¢ $7 356d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 357d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 357d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $21 385d
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 SELL No 99¢ $21 386d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 388d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 388d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 388d
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 BUY No 99¢ $21 388d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $0 388d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.02 · official $41.02 (match) · 80 history records