trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 6 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 50% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 50% | 0% | -8.9% |
| all | 17 | -0.6% | -10.0% | 47% | 0% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.0% | 0% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -26.5% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -33.7% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $41 | $41 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 27 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 25 | $17 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 25 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 25 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? | Jun 26 | $7 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 25 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? | Jun 01 | $4 | $0 | -6% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | May 27 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? | May 25 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | May 25 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Michelle Bachelet win the Chilean presidential election? | May 24 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? | May 24 | $23 | $0 | +1% |
| Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | May 18 | $1 | $0 | -14% |
| Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? | May 17 | $28 | $0 | +0% |