Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0046…8a76 other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$27
politics 29% −$18
sports 16% −$6
crypto 9% −$5
economics 5% −$2
culture 5% −$3
world 3% −$1
finance 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 65 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 110 -0.7% -10.2% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 129 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage100d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 17 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $282 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $52 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $180 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $196 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $40 $0 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $237 −$2 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $81 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $94 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $52 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $362 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $145 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 11 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $606 −$3 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $51 $0 +1%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $49 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 03 $60 −$3 -5%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $44 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $97 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $380 −$2 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 02 $52 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $92 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $59 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $117 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $39 40m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $46 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $22 9h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $24 9h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $50 9h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $50 16h
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL No 91¢ $43 17h
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 95¢ $46 22h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 22h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $17 27h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $29 28h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $39 28h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $41 33h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $51 34h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 42h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 42h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 47h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $55 47h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $55 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $53 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $57 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $57 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $40 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 98¢ $36 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 98¢ $36 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.84 · official $38.84 (match) · 489 history records