Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0044…1b4a crypto 1406 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$183 (+1%) realized +$213 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%907W / 673L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day124.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$660
7 days−$660
14 days−$665
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,246
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 555 -52.9% -57.4% 24% 23% -26.1%
≤30d 1580 -12.9% -21.2% 57% 48% -10.1%
≤90d 1580 -12.9% -21.2% 57% 48% -10.1%
all 1580 -12.9% -21.2% 57% 48% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 48% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 26% -18.7%
15% -35.7% 23% -26.5%
20% -42.0% 18% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$213
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses907 / 673
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1580 / 1406
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day124.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $92 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $31 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $23.08 · 3500 history records