Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
00 0x003b…ff1f crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+4%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +114% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip
Net edge+65%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+94.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +114.5% +94.1% 46% 38% -6.0%
≤30d 13 +114.5% +94.1% 46% 38% -6.0%
≤90d 13 +114.5% +94.1% 46% 38% -6.0%
all 13 +114.5% +94.1% 46% 38% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +94.1% 38% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here +75.5% 38% -15.0%
15% +58.6% 38% -23.2%
20% +43.0% 38% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +115% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +274% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $87 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $77 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$28 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$95 +1775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records