Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

00
0x003a…489b
sports · 760 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$25 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$60
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses543 / 202
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions15
Markets (closed)745 / 760
History coverage105d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 15 History 745 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$110
14 days−$47
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 63¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 77¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Morocco 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Under 81¢ 81¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Tallon Griekspoor 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 73¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Philadelphia Phillies 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Felix Auger-Aliassime 73¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Toronto Tempo 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets New York Mets 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bellucci vs. Fritz: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +67%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $2 +$1 +79%
Lehecka vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Shimabukuro vs. Kyrgios: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +38%
Set Handicap: Fucsovics (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$1 +17%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $3 +$1 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $3 +$2 +45%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 +$1 +36%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $2 +$3 +118%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $4 +$2 +44%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $3 +$2 +67%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $2 +$1 +54%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $3 +$1 +38%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 10 $3 +$2 +62%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 10 $3 +$2 +46%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $3 +$1 +32%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 09 $1 +$1 +59%
Set Handicap: Halys (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 09 $2 +$1 +47%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $2 +$1 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 09 $3 −$1 -27%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $2 +$2 +97%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 09 $3 +$1 +21%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +76%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) Jun 09 $4 +$1 +20%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 09 $4 +$1 +31%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 09 $3 +$2 +90%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $3 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% +$19
other 12% +$9
crypto 0% −$4
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $4 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $3 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $2 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $3 12h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $1 26h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $2 26h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 77¢ $4 26h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $2 26h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 74¢ $2 26h
Bellucci vs. Fritz: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 26h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 55¢ $2 26h
Lehecka vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 68¢ $3 26h
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 41¢ $1 26h
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 73¢ $3 26h
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 78¢ $3 26h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $3 38h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $3 38h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 55¢ $3 38h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL South Africa 99¢ $5 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 42h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY South Africa 82¢ $4 42h
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $5 2d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -37.4% -43.4% 41% 41% -41.6%
≤30d 373 -3.0% -12.3% 70% 69% -10.2%
≤90d 703 -0.9% -10.3% 72% 69% -10.5%
all 745 +2.1% -7.6% 73% 70% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 70% -8.7%
10% -16.5% 52% -17.5%
15% -24.6% 32% -25.4%
20% -31.9% 19% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.53 · official $59.53 (match) · 1564 history records