Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

00
0x0038…4b44
other · 10 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 6 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +441%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 82% $0
world 15% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 13h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 15h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +73.9% +57.3% 50% 50% -9.6%
≤30d 4 +73.9% +57.3% 50% 50% -9.6%
≤90d 4 +73.9% +57.3% 50% 50% -9.6%
all 4 +73.9% +57.3% 50% 50% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.3% 50% -9.6%
10% +42.3% 50% -18.2%
15% +28.5% 50% -26.1%
20% +15.9% 50% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.92 · official $13.92 (match) · 12 history records