Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x0036…e086 other 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%8W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$14
politics 17% −$4
sports 10% +$2
tech 7% −$2
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 58 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 90 -2.0% -11.3% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 4% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×8.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses8 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage123d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $265 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $479 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $252 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $467 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $461 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $249 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $240 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 08 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $219 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $242 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $477 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $264 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $255 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $184 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $227 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $257 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $260 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $186 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $237 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $248 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $442 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 31 $214 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $237 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 30 $398 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 28 $210 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 27 $218 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 17d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $231 20d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $231 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $205 28d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $205 29d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $191 29d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $191 35d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $265 59d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $265 61d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $191 61d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $191 61d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $214 61d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $214 61d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $183 61d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $183 62d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $212 62d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $212 62d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $247 63d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $247 63d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $252 63d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $252 63d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $235 63d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $235 63d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $248 64d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $248 64d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $252 64d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $252 64d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $201 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.98 · official $41.98 (match) · 266 history records