Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0036…aab7 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$1
politics 24% −$1
sports 24% +$1
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage110d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 28 $110 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $110 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $110 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $111 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $112 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $112 $0 +0%
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? Mar 31 $112 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $112 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 20 $112 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $112 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $112 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $110 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $110 17h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $110 22d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $110 26d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 27d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $110 32d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $110 33d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $110 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 42d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $111 44d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $111 45d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $111 46d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 47d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 48d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 48d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 48d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $111 52d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $111 52d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $111 71d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $111 72d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $111 72d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $111 75d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $111 76d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 76d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 77d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 77d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 77d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $111 81d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records